Newsletter Articles 2021

June ~ DeepStar

In Crimson Lucre, the Prospector 1 mission to Mars relies on a booster technology I call DeepStar. DeepStar uses nuclear ion propulsion to provide the thrust to transport the Prospector 1 crew and Descent/ascent Vehicle (DV) to Mars.

Nuclear ion propulsion uses an energy source – in this case a nuclear reactor – to ionize a noble gas. The charge differential between the positive ions created and a negative electrode grid causes the ions to accelerate toward the electrode. Once there, the positive ions pick up electrons. The neutral atoms continue out the booster nozzle, producing the thrust that propels the vessel toward its destination.

Nuclear ion propulsion has been deployed by both NASA and Roscosmos since the late 1950s. Many satellites use small units for orbital maneuvering, and to de-orbit at the end of their useful life. A proposed NASA lunar orbital space station called Lunar Gateway (unfunded) utilizes a 50 kW solar ion propulsion system called Advanced Electric Propulsion System (AEPS) to provide orbital maneuvering thrust. AEPS has been designed and tested and is awaiting deployment.

On the nuclear side, NASA has developed relatively lightweight Kilopower nuclear reactors. These units weigh in at a sprightly 1500 kg and can generate up to 10 kW of electric power. November 2017 through March 2018 a Kilopower reactor wedded to a Stirling electrical generator successfully generated 5.5 kW of fission power. NASA acknowledges these Kilopower reactors could one day power nuclear ion propulsion.

Nuclear ion propulsion generates just a fraction of the thrust of the chemical boosters used in today’s boosters. So why use it? Two reasons. First, its way more efficient. A trip to Mars would require something like 100,000 kg of Argon verses nearly 3.5 million kg of conventional chemical propellant. Second, it’s estimated that a nuclear ion propulsion unit could operate continuously for up to five years.

That longevity is important. Getting to Mars using a chemical booster entails a brief minutes-long burst of enormous thrust to achieve the speed necessary to coast there. Its like a bullet being shot from a rifle. Quick acceleration, then momentum takes you to the target. Nuclear ion propulsion on the other hand, uses continuous gentle acceleration to leave Earth (or trans-lunar) orbit and reach Mars. I worked out the math on the back of a napkin. (OK, it was a piece of scratch paper.) A 100 kW reactor (or 10 Kilopower reactors) using 10,000 kg of Argon propellant stock on board a 15,000 kg vessel (comparable to the SpaceX Starship) would take nine months to reach Mars. With a little optimization and weight trimming – like using induced hibernation to cut down on food consumption and life support requirements and pre-positioning a base and supplies ahead of the mission – a six-month transit is entirely feasible.

Will this technology be used to propel humanity to Mars within the next fifteen years? It’s a definite maybe. My money is on private enterprise, or possibly a public-private venture. SpaceX is developing Starship and is under contract with NASA for several lunar missions. SpaceX’s Starlink satellite constellation utilizes ion thrusters to maneuver and de-orbit. NASA has developed the nuclear reactor(s) and the AEPS ion propulsion unit. The next step will combine them for an upcoming mission either to the moon, or to a near-Earth asteroid to prove the technology.So, will the first mission to Mars in 2035 use nuclear ion propulsion ala the DeepStar booster? If you’re risk-averse, you may want to hold your money. But by 2040? It’s a sure bet.

Want a deeper dive? There are a number of excellent Wikipedia articles that cover the material I discussed here. In the order I discussed:
Kilopower https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kilopower
Ion Thruster https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ion_thruster
AEPS https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advanced_Electric_Propulsion_System
SpaceX Starship https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship

July ~ Life With Autonomous Vehicles

Crimson Lucre features autonomous vehicles (AVs). Major automakers, plus tech giants Amazon, Alphabet, Google and Apple have invested over $16 billion in AV. Some have begun deployment in limited circumstances. Lately I’ve noticed Domino’s Pizza touting their driverless delivery service in Houston, Texas on their TV ads. What will it mean for society when AV technology is fully adopted?

Rightly, discussion about new vehicle technology revolves around safety. It’s the number-one sales pitch for the adoption of the technology from AV apologists. So let’s start there.

Of the roughly 39,000 annual vehicle fatalities in the United States, more than 10,000 of those deaths are attributable to drunk driving. When you take away the steering wheel, the argument goes, drunk driving deaths, injuries, arrests, etc. just disappear.

When drunk driving disappears, so will all traffic infractions. Speeding? AVs strictly follow speed limits. Failure to yield? Unlike human drivers, AVs have360-degree awareness. Even parking infractions will go away. It will be interesting to see what sort of impact this will have on municipal, county and state police budgets. It would certainly free up budget for community policing and social service enhancements that are part of the current civic discourse.

Roughly 26,000 annual traffic deaths are attributable to human error. Unfortunately, AV developers have yet to eliminate robot error. There are 9.1 AV accidents per million miles driven, compared to only 4.1 accidents per million miles for regular vehicles. Although in fairness to AVs, the majority of their accidents involve being hit from the rear by other vehicles.

The high AV accident rate, and high public scrutiny has delayed AV deployment. But the algorithms are constantly learning, and sensor technology is constantly improving, bringing the promise of safe AV technology ever closer. But obviously, we’re not there yet.
Distracted driving would also go away. Currently, this scourge accounts for over 3,000 deaths per year. Imagine how many lives could be saved if smart phones drove for you.

  A number of tech companies have deployed communications microsatellite constellations for world-wide 5G. By design, many of them have ties to AV technology development. Amazon has inked a contract to launch its Kuiper satellite constellation into orbit, while also investing in Rivian electric vehicle (EV) trucks and Zoox AV cars. Alphabet, which owns Waymo AV car maker, is providing cloud services for Elon Musk’s SpaceX Starlink constellation. His EV maker Tesla is developing AV technology. Other AV developers (GM, Ford, Toyota, Hyundai) will surely seek connectivity and cloud partnerships. But as the current Ransomware crisis demonstrates, connected computers are susceptible to hacking by malevolent actors – a major plot premise in Crimson Lucre.

Untying former drivers from steering wheels in an AV will lead to a number of vehicle interior innovations. Some AVs will become mobile offices, complete with desk, laptop dock and unlimited WiFi. Travel time will truly become productive, including virtual meetings, all while riding.

The non-business riding experience will revolve around connection to social media and gaming. Image virtual chats and playing high-res video games on built-in wide screens, or with virtual reality goggles as you travel.

 Much has been made in the news about the current semiconductor chip shortage. Current policy discussions regarding returning the chip supply chain to the United States center around economic security. But returning chip manufacturing to the US won’t necessarily solve the chip bottleneck. In 2019, China was responsible for 80% of rare earths imports into the US, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. That same year, China still produced roughly 85 percent of the world’s rare earth oxides (the first precursor of the refined minerals)and approximately 90 percent of rare earth metals, alloys, and permanent magnets. Through commercial acquisition, China controls all but one major rare earth element mine in the US today.

Rare earth elements are critical doping components of semiconductor chips and are extensively used in other high-tech components. As clean energy tech, EVs, smart commercial and military tech proliferate, the strain on the supply chain will grow worse, leading to conflict – a major premise for the race to mine rare earth elements on Mars in Crimson Lucre.

  An interesting outcome of AV adoption will be high speed vehicle platoons on freeways, resulting in increased roadway capacity. A typical lane capacity for freeway lanes is 1200 to 1400 vehicles per hour, under ideal roadway conditions and safe driver spacing at 70 mph. Safe driver spacing is dependent on human reaction time. It takes a typical driver ¾ second to recognize a hazard, then another ¾ second to apply the brakes or turn the steering wheel. An AV can recognize and react nearly instantaneously, allowing cars to safely travel mere feet apart at freeway speeds.

 Expect a decrease in personal car ownership. Today, expect to pay a $15,000 premium for a Mustang Mach-E over a comparable gas-powered model (I’m excluding EV operating cost-savings here). The cost of AV sensors and software could be double that. Assuming true level 5 AV was available today, a Mustang Mach-AV would likely run around $75,000.

AVs, especially high-end models, will be owned by the wealthy – a new status symbol. These individual owners will arrange to rent their vehicles to rideshare companies rather than pay for parking. Rideshares, rented from individuals, leased from car manufacturers or owned outright will ply city streets, offering convenient transportation on demand. Traditional bus routes and taxi service will disappear. AVs will feed long-line bus rapid transit on dedicated lanes and longer-line rail rapid transit for longer local and regional trips.

Traffic signals will disappear, replaced by cloud communication between individual vehicles and master traffic operations centers that regulate traffic city-wide. Pedestrian signals will remain, strictly for the benefit of corridor traffic operations. Pedestrians could safely choose to disregard “don’t walk” signals but will incur a hefty fine for diminishing traffic flow on the street network if they do.

Absent the internal combustion engine, the din of traffic noise will diminish near highways, but not disappear. Tire noise will become the dominant nuisance. City streets, dominated by engine noise today, will grow quiet.

According to Bloomberg, current market trends alone – disregarding possible government carbon reduction mandates – 2020EV cars are 4% of sales (10m units), EV buses 39% of sales (600k units), vans and trucks 1% of sales (1m units). By 2030 EV cars will account for 34% of sales, EV buses 63% of sales, EV light duty trucks 31% of sales, medium and heavy-duty EV trucks 12% of sales. By 2040 EV cars will represent 70% of sales, EV buses 83% of sales, EV light duty trucks 60% of sales, and medium and heavy-duty EV trucks 31%of sales.

Hydrocarbon fuel consumption will peak in the mid-2020s. Neighborhood gas stations as we know them will experience a rise in business failures by the late 2020s. By 2035 gas stations will be sited primarily near freeway interchanges or along busy arterial corridors. Grocery stores or other big-box business locations with large parking lots and long customer visit times will deploy more fast-charging stations (440 volts). By the early 2030’s a significant percentage of EVs will feature hydrogen fuel cells. Hydrogen recharge will be offered at the remaining gas stations and as stand-alone facilities.

EV adoption is well and good, but what about AV adoption? AV adoption will certainly lag EV adoption, primarily due to slow technology maturation and high cost as I noted above. The one-percenters will be early adopters, but rideshare companies – who will be highly motivated to slash their driver payrolls – will drive the market for AVs.

Trucking companies will incrementally adopt AV, for the freeway portion of long-hauls, and local deliveries where street networks meet certain limiting criteria. But commercial adoption will be swift once the robotic vs human safety disparity is addressed.

So, will Ann Waters have easy access to AV rideshares in 2035 as she does in Crimson Lucre? Probably. Will she be able to afford a used AV on a rocket scientist’s salary? Sadly, that depends on whether she earns a comparable salary to her male counterparts. The optimist in me says she can, but a detailed analysis must wait for a future newsletter.

Want a deeper dive? Check out these sources, listed in the order of discussion.

2021 Drunk Driving Statistics, Bankrate. https://www.bankrate.com/insurance/car/drunk-driving/
25 Intriguing Self-Driving Car Statistics You Should Know, Carsurance. https://carsurance.net/blog/self-driving-car-statistics/
Distracted Driving Statistics: Research and Facts in 2021, The Zebra. https://www.thezebra.com/resources/research/distracted-driving-statistics/
Space Companies Are Investing Big in 5G Technology, Space.com. https://www.space.com/5g-in-space-internet-satellites.html
Big Tech’s Obsession is all About Taking Eyes Off the Road, Seattle Times. https://www.seattletimes.com/business/technology/big-techs-car-obsession-is-all-about-taking-eyes-off-the-road/
China Rare Earth Market Report 2019-2023: China’s Rare Earth Exports to the United States Accounted for 78% of U.S. Rare Earth Imports, PR Newswire. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/china-rare-earth-market-report-2019-2023-chinas-rare-earth-exports-to-the-united-states-accounted-for-78-of-us-rare-earth-imports-300856574.html
Highway Capacity Manual, Appendix B https://ccag.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/cmp_2005_Appendix_B.pdf
Electrical Vehicle Outlook 2021, Bloomberg NEF. https://about.bnef.com/electric-vehicle-outlook/

August ~ The Future of Quantum Computing

 Crimson Lucre features a number of computers – in SaMMCon, aboard Prospector 1 and on Mars. But are they quantum computers? Probably not. For “simple” problems like navigation and orbital dynamics, classical binary computers are up to the challenge. But for cyber security, materials science, chemistry, pharmaceuticals, climate and weather modeling, the speed and computing power of a quantum computer is essential.

Quantum computers have been in the news lately. IBM, Google, Honeywell, Amazon &others offer quantum computer access via the cloud. Recently, great strides have been made in the number and stability of qubits available on quantum chips.

The basic unit of classical computing is the bit. A bit only possesses one of two states, 0 or 1. A computer with two bits can consider four different states(00,01,10,11). A classical computer must work through one computation at a time to solve complex problems, a quantum computer essentially solves its computations simultaneously.

The basic unit of quantum computing is the qubit. Qubits rely on two distinct quantum states of matter: Two of the many discrete spin states of an ion, the nuclear spin state of an atom, the spin states of an electron or the polarization of a photon. However, unlike the 0-1 logic of a classical computer, these quantum states are not strictly defined by up-down, left-right, or high-low, but by probabilities. As qubits are added to a quantum system, the number of possible probabilities becomes astonishing. Sepehr Ebadi, a Harvard graduate student and lead author of a paper announcing the creation of a 256-qubitquantum chip published in July’s edition of Nature noted in ScienceDaily that “”The number of quantum states that are possible with only 256 qubits exceeds the number of atoms in the solar system.”

The answer to a problem posed to a quantum computer is not arrived at by a series of answers to binary questions, but rather on the arrangement and quantum states of a collection of qubits. This reliance on quantum processes is at the heart of the speed of quantum computing.

Today’s rudimentary quantum computers have already demonstrated the ability to solve in minutes, problems that take classical supercomputers days or years to solve.

 A number of applications out of the reach of today’s most powerful supercomputers lend themselves to quantum computing.

Security. The symmetric-key algorithm employed by The Advanced Encryption Standard (AES)is the gold-standard of computer security. To crack an AES encrypted data set, it takes a supercomputer years to crunch through the permutations to arrive at the correct matching key. A quantum computer employing the requisite number of qubits could decrypt the data in minutes, if not seconds.

Most experts believe we are about ten years from entering this new (in)security paradigm. When we do, quantum keys will become the new normal in encryption. That, and a new class of security software that can track malicious malware back to its source and eradicate it—call it Smith.

Materials Science. Quantum computers have a clear advantage over classical computers because they use quantum processes (qubits) to describe and evaluate quantum processes (electromagnetic and orbital behavior at the atomic and subatomic level). Today, most advances in alloys, plastics, etc. is the result of painstaking trial and error. Quantum computing can model exactly what interactions are occurring within crystalline or amorphous solids to achieve a desired material property.

Chemistry. Many companies today utilize cloud-based quantum computing to understand interactions at active sites on molecules such as lithium hydride. For example, Mitsubishi is investigating lithium-oxygen batteries with greater energy density. Daimler has a program to develop the next generation of EV batteries.

Pharmaceuticals. Receptor sites on proteins and enzymes rely on delicate quantum interactions to achieve a given biological activity. Quantum computers have already been used to evaluate the active sites of numerous enzymes for drug research.

Climate and Weather modelling. Modern climate models can take supercomputers days to run. These models divide the atmosphere into a 3D grid starting at the Earth’s surface. Various algorithms calculate the transfer of heat, moisture, etc., between the grid dells. The smaller the cell size, the greater the precision of the model. But the smaller the grid, the greater the number of cells and the longer the run time. Today’s best models rely on a 1-mile square grid, but at the cost of accuracy (or resolution, in the modeler’s jargon). The goal is to achieve a grid size something on the order of 1 square meter – something that would take a binary supercomputer months, or even years to run. But a quantum computer with the requisite number of qubits could run such a model in minutes. Consider this: we may be able to predict which butterfly in which location will initiate the chain of events that cause the hurricane of the century. (Consider that when you admire that butterfly resting on your rose bush.)

The original Moore’s law applied to the miniaturization (and thereby increased density and capacity) of transistor yes/no logic gates (i.e., the 1 or 0 state known as bits) on a silicon chip. Through the 80’s, 90’s and 2000’s, transistor capacity consistently doubled every two years. This became known as Moore’s Law. Are quantum chips experiencing similar growth with their numbers of qubits?

There are two basic approaches taken by quantum chip developers – groups like IBM or Rigetti—who use superconducting qubits composed of a supercooled electron pair (known as a Cooper pair) trapped in an aluminum lattice and manipulated by magnetic fields—and groups like Honeywell or IonQ—who use ion-trap-based qubits that use light to excite ions, then detect the photon that is later released. The wavelength of the photon corresponds to the quantum state of the ion.

In 2016 IBM made its rudimentary quantum computer available on the cloud. That early quantum processor used 5 qubits. IBM also made available QISKit, a “toolkit” of open-source quantum algorithms. Research teams are constantly adding new quantum algorithms to the QISkit library.

In November 2020. IBM made available its 54-qubit quantum processor.
In September of last year, IBM introduced a 65-qubit processor. The industry buzz is that they will release a 127-qubit processor perhaps sometime this year. Two independent scientific teams announced the achievement of 256-qubit quantum chips just last month.

Recent advances in the number of qubits on quantum chips has indeed been increasing.

But…the greater the number of qubits on a chip, the greater the probability of decoherence – a quantum state other than what is called for by the problem posed – thereby introducing error into the solution. To date, the way to increase reliability is to add more qubits – essentially duplicate computations that can self-correct for errors. Qubit stability on the order of a second is adequate for quantum computers to function reliably. But coherence is often measured in microseconds

The primary hurdle for quantum chips is the basic instability of quantum elements needed to create and maintain the qubit.

This July, researchers at Google and several educational institutions announced the successful creation of a functional 20 qubit time crystal. A time crystal is a newly discovered state of matter that alternates between two quantum states –like a metronome. But unlike a metronome, a time crystal will alternate between those two states forever without the expenditure or input of energy. In essence, it’s a quantum perpetual motion machine. This property means that time crystal qubits modified by a quantum algorithm will remain stable indefinitely. The announcement, reported in this July’s edition of Quanta Magazine, notes that the process is scaleable – meaning its amenable to commercial development and fabrication.

So, will we see widespread use of quantum computers by 2035? The infrastructure is in place for major advancements: quantum chips powerful enough for meaningful computation, technology to produce stable qubits, and a rapidly growing open-source library of quantum algorithms that act as a bridge between binary computer code and quantum hardware.

So yes, quantum computing will be certain and commonplace in 15 years. Hold onto your hats. This will be quite the ride.

For further reading:

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/07/physicists-move-closer-defeating-errors-quantum-computation
https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/779236
https://news.mit.edu/2020/scaling-quantum-chip-0708
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/07/210709104157.htm
https://www.techrepublic.com/article/6-experts-share-quantum-computing-predictions-for-2021/
https://www.quantamagazine.org/first-time-crystal-built-using-googles-quantum-computer-20210730/#:~:text=Like%20a%20perpetual%20motion%20machine,matter%20inside%20a%20quantum%20computer.

SEPTEMBER ~ The Hydrogen Economy

 Have you ever noticed that most portrayals of the distant future in print or film show gleaming clean cities and sparkling blue skies? This is because in these visions, the primary power source is derived by hydrogen rather than fossil fuels.

Hydrogen is the simplest – and most abundant – element in the universe. Atomic hydrogen consists of one proton and one electron. The lightest of all the elements, it has an atomic weight of 1.Molecular hydrogen is a binary molecule composed of two hydrogen atoms.

Hydrogen readily reacts with other elements (a reductive reaction, for you chemistry buffs) such as oxygen or carbon. The reaction products become water or methane, respectively. The reaction is highly exothermic, giving off huge quantities of energy as heat and light. The Hindenberg blimp went up in one of the most famous fireballs in history when the hydrogen gas it used for buoyancy ignited with atmospheric oxygen.

In the presence of a catalyst like platinum hydrogen dissociates into protons and electrons. A second catalyst, often nickel, combines the hydrogen with oxygen, generating an electric current. This is the basis for hydrogen fuel cells, which are an important component of a hydrogen economy.

Scientists view the energy potential of hydrogen, and its clean byproducts, as the logical replacement for today’s carbon economy, based on the combustion of fossil fuels and its emissions of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide.

 Commercial hydrogen is typically produced by a process called steam-methane reforming. Methane is combined with1300o F steam in the presence of a catalyst. The byproducts are hydrogen and carbon dioxide.

The use of fossil fuels to generate the steam for steam-methane reforming adds to the carbon dioxide byproduct from hydrogen manufacture.

Hydrogen can also be split from the oxygen in water molecules by the process of electrolysis using high-power electrodes submerged in water. I recall producing hydrogen and oxygen gas on a small scale in my high school chemistry class using distilled water in two test tubes. Introducing a flame to the generated gas produced a satisfying “pop”, which recombined the hydrogen and oxygen gases back into water.

In terms of its carbon footprint, not all hydrogen is equal. Hydrogen can be divided into three categories, depending on its manufacture. The hydrogen produced by steam-methane reforming is classified as “gray” hydrogen, which generates the highest mass of carbon dioxide per unit mass of hydrogen. If the heat source utilizes a renewable energy source, and/or carbon capture technology sequesters the carbon dioxide reaction byproduct, that hydrogen is classified as “blue”. Hydrogen electrolyzed by a fossil fuel power source is also considered “blue”.

Electrolysis from a clean power source (fusion, nuclear, or renewable generation like wind or solar) produces“ green” hydrogen.

The fascinating thing about the hydrolysis of water, is that the process is completely reversible. This lends itself to applications for energy storage, and energy generation.

Most forms of renewable electrical energy production are intermittent, making it difficult and expensive to integrate the power generated into a large energy grid. The wind only blows on windy days, and seldom at night. The sun only shines in the day. That lack of reliability is mitigated by natural gas power generation plants that can nimbly make up the difference in demand verses production.

Electrolytic hydrogen production is an energy storage technology being considered by electric utilities. But it comes with its challenges. First, a ready water source is needed. Once generated, the hydrogen needs to be either stored on site or piped to the urban centers where it is ultimately used.

Fuel cells recombine hydrogen and oxygen in the presence of a catalyst to generate electricity. They are currently deployed for both portable and permanent backup power for homes and businesses, much like a fossil fuel-based generator. They are envisioned as the future power plant for electric vehicles, largely replacing bulky lithium hydride battery systems.

Fuel cells are being deployed or developed for the full range of electrified industrial applications: turboprop aircraft, 300-ton mining dump trucks, cargo ships, port terminal equipment, locomotives, agricultural machinery, long-haul semi tractors, local delivery trucks, and of course passenger vehicles.

Hydrogen fuel cells largely overcome the primary obstacles to electric vehicle adoption by most consumers: range anxiety and lengthy recharge times. According to the US EPA, contemporary fuel cell EV’s have a driving range of between 312 and 380 miles. Refilling is as simple as recharging the tank with compressed hydrogen gas, a process taking mere minutes.

Hydrogen is also replacing natural gas and liquid petroleum distillates for direct combustion applications. Airbus is developing storage technologies for hydrogen powered jet aircraft, the final hurdle to deployment. Their conceptual airframe designs utilize a larger fuselage for hydrogen fuel storage rather than in the wings like in contemporary aircraft.

Liquid hydrogen and oxygen fuel has been a mainstay of rocket propulsion for decades.

Several demonstration projects and feasibility studies are evaluating the  repurposing natural gas pipelines and infrastructure to carry hydrogen. Conversion costs to carry pure hydrogen are roughly 15% of a brand-new network. Pipe-delivered hydrogen would serve the same purposes as natural gas – heating homes, commercial buildings and for industrial processes.

Two hurdles must be overcome to transition to a hydrogen economy: cost and scale.

As of 2018, global production of hydrogen was 60 million metric tons. Compare that to last year’s global oil production, 4.2 billion metric tons. Most of the hydrogen currently produced is used in the petrochemical industry. With the exception of its use in fossil fuel production, hydrogen will still be required for production of fertilizers, treating metals and processing foods. Scaling up production of blue and green hydrogen will require billions of dollars of investment to keep up with the demand created by electrification of transportation and replacement of natural gas.

It costs $0.70 to $2.20 per kilogram to produce gray hydrogen. Blue hydrogen costs between $1.30 to $2.90due to the cost of carbon sequestration, making it cost-competitive only when hydrocarbon fuel and feedstock costs are low. Over time, the cost of green hydrogen will fall below the cost of gray hydrogen as renewable and fusion energy dominates the power grid. The cost of renewable power is already cost-competitive with fossil fuel power generation and is expected to decline over time as the technologies mature and scale up.

So how close are we to seeing a hydrogen economy? I expect to purchase a fuel cell power plant within the next five years to run my parked recreational vehicle. My next passenger vehicle will be a battery-powered EV. By 2030, my new vehicles will be powered by fuel cells.

Green hydrogen production will track closely with the electrification of transportation. As I noted in my June2021 newsletter, “Hydrocarbon fuel consumption will peak in the mid-2020s. Neighborhood gas stations as we know them will experience a rise in business failures by the late 2020s. By 2035 gas stations will be sited primarily near freeway interchanges or along busy arterial corridors. Grocery stores or other big-box business locations with large parking lots and long customer visit times will deploy more fast-charging stations (440 volts). By the early 2030’s a significant percentage of EVs will feature hydrogen fuel cells. Hydrogen recharge will be offered at the remaining gas stations and as stand-alone facilities.”

I’ll stand by my prediction for EV adoption. The hydrogen economy will be dominant over the hydrocarbon economy by the early 2030s.

For further reading
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1121207/global-hydrogen-production/
https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/hydrogen/production-of-hydrogen.php
https://www.hydrogenfuelnews.com/are-fuel-cell-generators-the-future-for-rvs/8540128/
https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/stories/hydrogen-aviation-understanding-challenges-to-widespread-adoption.html
https://www.seattletimes.com/business/seattle-rocket-scientists-turn-attention-to-mining-nearing-completion-of-zero-emissions-engine-for-huge-industrial-dump-truck/
https://www.offshore-energy.biz/flagships-set-to-debut-worlds-1st-hydrogen-powered-commercial-cargo-ship/
https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2019/10/f68/fcto-h2-at-ports-workshop-2019-viii3-steele.pdf
https://www.railwaygazette.com/traction-and-rolling-stock/indian-railways-to-test-fuel-cell-trains/59694.article
https://fuelcellsworks.com/news/hydrogen-fuel-is-shaping-the-future-of-agriculture/#:~:text=Hydrogen%20Fuel%20Can%20Help%20Make%20Farming%20Sustainable&text=Hydrogen%20fuel%20cell%20alternatives%20to,agriculture%20away%20from%20fossil%20fuels.
https://techcrunch.com/2021/08/11/hyzon-motors-has-begun-shipping-hydrogen-fuel-cell-trucks-to-customers/
https://trucknbus.hyundai.com/global/en/products/truck/xcient-fuel-cell
https://www.siemens-energy.com/global/en/news/magazine/2020/repurposing-natural-gas-infrastructure-for-hydrogen.html
https://extranet.acer.europa.eu/Official_documents/Acts_of_the_Agency/Publication/Transporting%20Pure%20Hydrogen%20by%20Repurposing%20Existing%20Gas%20Infrastructure_Overview%20of%20studies.pdf
https://www.velaw.com/insights/hydrogen-production-technology-and-infrastructure-restrictions/
https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/hydrogen/use-of-hydrogen.php
https://www.rechargenews.com/energy-transition/green-hydrogen-will-be-cost-competitive-with-grey-h2-by-2030-without-a-carbon-price/2-1-1001867

October ~ Building Materials on Mars (Part 1)

Given the six-month or longer voyage to reach Mars, first missions to the planet’s surface must last six months to two years to justify the expense to get there. Such lengthy missions require habitats to shield explorers and any food they must grow from the environmental extremes on Mars. The materials these habitats will be constructed from must address these extremes:

· Near-vacuum conditions. Atmospheric pressure is roughly 1/100th that of Earth at sea level. Any structure must be capable of sustaining internal pressure to maintain a viable atmosphere.

· Extreme cold. Winter temperatures can be minus140o F or colder. Even summer air temps are below freezing. Many common building materials become extremely brittle (read that fragile) in such extreme cold. The structure as a whole must be insulated enough to maintain a livable temperature for the occupants living inside.

· Extreme diurnal temperature swings. As much as 125oF between daytime max and nighttime low temps. Many common building materials quickly weather to dust due to the internal shear stresses caused by extreme thermal expansion and contraction.

· Extreme exposure to cosmic radiation, high energy solar wind and particles, and solar ultraviolet light. Mars lacks two protective mechanisms we enjoy here on Earth—a magnetosphere to redirect energetic particles, and a dense atmosphere to attenuate them. Any structure on Mars must shield its occupants from radiation exposure experienced on the surface. Fortunately for the Prospector missions, cosmic ray exposure at Hellas Planitia is much lower than elsewhere on Mars, about 10 rems per year, due to the low elevation and consequent thicker atmospheric blanket overhead. But radiation exposure there still elevates risk of leukemia and other adverse health outcomes. Elsewhere on Mars’ surface radiation levels will be much worse.

· Exposure to micro- and larger meteorites. The structure must be durable enough to handle the occasional meteorite strike. Soft structures must have isolated sections that allow the loss of pressure in one place without catastrophic failure of the entire structure. Rigid structures should be able to withstand at least micro meteorite strikes without failure.
Structures on Mars fall into three broad categories based on their material’s durability and ability to shield occupants from Mars’ environmental extremes.

Initial missions to Mars will likely rely wholly or in part on soft structures—essentially inflatable tents, engineered to last the duration of individual missions. These structures will likely be double- or triple-walled to provide insulation against extreme nighttime and winter temperatures.

But while such thin-walled structures offer protection against ultraviolet radiation, they offer less protection against cosmic radiation. It is possible that early missions will seek out natural caves or overhanging cliffs to erect their inflatable structures inside.

To mitigate the risk of catastrophic pressure loss, more than one structure may be needed. If they are interconnected, engineers may require they be connected by airlocks so the pressure loss of one structure won’ t result in complete structural failure.

Candidate materials are carbon fiber fabrics. Carbon fiber is used to construct wing and fuselage components for many Boeing aircraft today. It has proven durable in the extreme cold experienced at 35,000 feet and endures the temperature fluctuations experienced between the ground and cruising altitude. It is assumed the resin base that provides the airtight seal must be flexible to be folded up for transport from Earth to Mars.

The gold standard for radiation shielding is high density polyethylene, a hydrogen-dense resin used to shield the international space station. While the ISS shielding is not 100% effective, it reduces cosmic radiation exposure sufficiently to allow extended missions. Carbon-fiber reinforced HDPE sheeting might serve the needs for short-term inflatable shelters on Mars.

Consideration of in situ materials production and construction methodologies is significant for medium-term habitats on Mars. Why? Because most common construction materials on Earth cannot be fabricated in the Martian environment. For example, Portland cement is produced by baking the carbon dioxide out of limestone, yielding a mixture of calcium silicates. When hydrated, the Portland cement becomes a matrix of calcium hydroxide and silica hydrates that bind to the sand and gravel aggregate, giving concrete its strength.

To my knowledge, limestone doesn’t exist on Mars. If it did, producing Portland cement would require a high energy expenditure. There is little free water to mix with the resultant Portland cement to make concrete. Even with a supply of fresh water, the water would either boil away due to the near-vacuum or freeze in the extreme cold. The result would be a pile of rubble where you had hoped to cure a concrete beam or a tilt-up wall.

A possible alternative would be constructing blocks using molten sulfur cement. Sulfur has a relatively low melting point (239.4oF), could be mixed with sand, poured into molds and allowed to cool. Such(relatively) low temperatures are amenable to 3D printer technologies. Here on Earth, 3D printed houses made from Portland cement are now commercially available.

Other proposed regolith matrix binding materials are being considered for Mars building materials. Chitosan is chemically derived from chitin, a naturally occurring glucose-based polymer found in insect exoskeletons, and protective structures of mollusks. It can be mixed with regolith to produce high strength blocks. But its exclusive use for structures would require shipping a massive supply or developing an efficient way to produce it in situ. It can be readily extracted from insects which could simultaneously be used as a protein food source. But the quantities of chitosan generated would limit the size and number of buildings that could be constructed from its use.

Silicon dioxide is abundant on Mars and can be used to produce glass. It can be mixed with common iron and manganese minerals to form an opaque block or panel. Varying degrees of purity result in a transparent or translucent product. The downside is glass requires ultra-high temperatures to produce. The melting point of obsidian (volcanic glass) is 1830o F. But the ability to produce glass also means the ability to smelt metals, notably iron. High temperature materials like metals and glass are not suitable for use in 3Dprinting technologies but are appropriate for block and/or post and beam construction methods.

All of these medium-term building materials and methods can be made pressure tight with interior linings or coatings and offer a much greater degree of cosmic ray protection. But these structures will still be susceptible to cold-induced weathering and strikes by modestly sized meteorites. A direct high-speed strike by an object the size of a baseball could potentially be catastrophic.

Short- and medium-term materials and buildings will be suitable to enable the first ten or twenty years of Mars colonization. But the real solution for long-term permanent colonies on Mars is to build underground. In November’s issue I’ll discuss in Building Materials on Mars(Part 2) what such long-term structures will look like and how they’ll be constructed.

For further reading
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214552420300377
https://houwzer.com/blog/3d-printed-homes-how-soon-can-we-buy
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S204604302100006X#:~:text=In%2Dsitu%20resources%20including%20Martian,Galactic%20Cosmic%20Rays%20and%20UV.
https://spacenews.com/op-ed-materials-that-could-bring-life-to-mars/
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/09/chitin-could-be-used-to-build-tools-and-habitats-on-mars-study-finds/

November ~ Building Materials on Mars (Part 2)

 In last month’s edition, I discussed in situ building materials for short and long-term bases on Mars. I concluded that these building materials would allow for a base design life of up to five years, in part because of the exposure to the extreme Martian environment:

· Near-vacuum conditions.
· Extreme cold.
· Extreme diurnal temperature swings.
· Extreme exposure to cosmic radiation, high energy solar wind, and solar ultraviolet light.
· Exposure to micro- and larger meteorites.

What’s the best way to protect in situ building materials (and their occupants) from being degraded by Mars’ harsh conditions? Build underground.

As a civil engineer working in the Seattle metropolitan area, I had a front row seat to numerous tunneling projects over the course of my career. The I-90 interstate segment between Seattle and Bellevue featured bored tunnels beneath Seattle’s First Hill and cut and cover tunnels on Mercer Island. Later, the Alaskan Way Tunnel was bored beneath the crumbling Alaskan Way Viaduct and downtown Seattle to accommodate the four-lane highway for one-and-three-quarters-miles. Another form of cut and cover tunnel construction I witnessed was the construction of culverts. For intermittent streams or watercourses, a simple pipe sufficed. But over salmon-bearing streams, arch culverts were used. Arch culverts provide a higher clearance than drainage pipes, allowing light in to facilitate fish passage, and a wide base that allowed the continuation of the natural streambed beneath the roadway. Their large cross section spread out floodwaters, slowing downstream velocities within the culvert and immediately downstream.

Many of the largest tunnel projects I witnessed utilized direct boring. Tunnel boring machines can efficiently dig tunnels of immense spans. The aforementioned Alaskan Way Tunnel shaft was fifty-seven-and-a half-feet in diameter—large enough to stack two interior decks to accommodate two traffic lanes in each direction. Moreover, boring machines are maneuverable (within tolerances). The Alaskan Way Tunnel had to dive down eighty feet to clear the pilings supporting the existing viaduct, then swing east and uphill to the north portal above Lake Union. The soil the tunnel machine bored through was largely clay and glacial till – highly consolidated silt, sand and gravel.

The boring machine was 326 feet long and weighed 6,700 tons. It was constructed in pieces in Japan, shipped to Seattle and assembled there. As the machine bored through the soil, spoils were carried to the back via a conveyor belt, then trucked away. As it advanced, precast concrete ring segments were fit into place to prevent soil slippage. The machine featured rooms for operators and mechanics. It ran twenty-four hours a day, seven days a week.

The downsides of tunnel boring machines are that they perform poorly when they encounter solid obstacles such as boulders or bedrock. The Seattle machine encountered an abandoned metal well casing. The shutdown for repairs to the damaged cutter head lasted two years. An excavation pit was dug ahead of the machine, which was advanced to push the cutter head into the pit. The 900-ton cutter head was removed, lifted from the pit, and returned to Japan for repairs. A tunnel boring machine’s enormous size, complexity and susceptibility to damage make it a poor candidate for use on Mars.

These machines also perform poorly in unconsolidated soils like sand and mud here on Earth, or regolith on Mars. Tunneling through loose soils often leads to sinkholes, which can threaten the tunneling operation with collapse or inundation.

The cut and cover tunnel method utilizes common construction machinery – excavators, dozers and dump trucks. A deep trench is excavated. Parallel concrete footings are placed to support the tunnel walls. The walls are set in place and beams placed over the top. A deck is constructed atop the beams, and soil is backfilled to restore the original topography.

As I noted in The Hydrogen Economy(September ’21 issue), hydrogen fuel cells are already being deployed in mining, construction and transportation equipment. Within the next five to ten years, construction equipment powered by HFCs will be commonplace. The remaining issues for deployment to Mars then become protecting the hydraulic systems from freezing in the extreme cold and reducing overall mass to facilitate transportation to Mars – issues for which existing technologies and substitute materials already exist.

 Last month I noted the likeliest candidate for long-term in situ building materials is a molten sulfur concrete(MSC). What I did not mention was that MSC, like Portland cement concrete, has excellent compressive strength, but poor tensile strength. In layman’s terms that means structural concrete requires reinforcement (think rebar). For the footings to resist uneven settlement, for the walls to resist deformation and for the beams to resist their own mass plus the mass of the soil above it, prodigious amounts of reinforcing material will be required.

There are two downsides to using steel rebar on Mars. The first is its weight. A twenty-foot stick of 3/8” diameter rebar weighs about seven and a half pounds. Construction of a permanent base on Mars would require thousands of sticks of rebar, even after designers account for the reduced loads imposed by Mars’ lower gravity. When providing equipment or materials to Mars, the cost of transportation will far exceed the cost of the materials themselves.

But the other downside may be even more difficult to overcome. Steel is subject to corrosion. While there is little water on Mars to promote corrosion, the sulfur matrix of MSC alone is a highly corrosive environment. If this cannot be addressed, the rebar could swell – causing the concrete to spall away, diminishing the structural strength of the walls, beams and top decking – leading to collapse.

There is a reinforcing material in use today that addresses both concerns—carbon fiber rods. A given length of carbon fiber rod is one-quarter the weight of comparable diameter steel rebar, is nearly twice as strong, and is nearly impervious to corrosion. My money is on the use of carbon fiber rods for structural reinforcement on Mars.

Another building method I referenced earlier in this article could reduce the reinforcement needed for post and beam construction. The use of an arch. Those who have visited Europe may have marveled at elevated Roman aqua ducts still standing after more than two millennia. I have stood in European stone churches dating to 800 AD whose vaulted ceilings relied on the arch. These ancient dry stone masonry structures rely on gravity alone and the ability of the arch shape to transfer loads down the length of the arch to the footings (or supporting vertical columns). It is awe inspiring to stand beneath thousands of pounds of un-mortared stones suspended above one’s head by the genius of Roman engineers.

It may be possible to create stackable MSC units for construction of arch tunnels. Larger units – such as one-third-length arch pieces, could be created with minimal reinforcement. Entire arch segments could also be produced but may require additional reinforcement to facilitate picking them up and setting them into place.

Mars arch tunnel structures as wide as ten meters (thirty-three feet) could be subdivided to create dorm rooms, offices, galleys and shop space, or left open for larger industrial applications. Smaller arches (six meters or less) could serve as connecting tunnels. Even smaller arches could be installed beneath tunnel floors for utility races(water, sewer, power, communications). All constructed on largely in situ materials fabricated on Mars.

Finally, arch tunnels made of MSC would need to be sealed internally to prevent release of toxic sulfur compounds and to facilitate an airtight seal to retain the internal atmosphere. Polyethylene (PE) – long polymer molecules composed of simple two-carbon ethylene units – could be readily derived from Mars’ carbon dioxide atmosphere. PE could be heat-applied in sheets or mixed with an adhesive plasticizer and applied like paint.

Depending on the depth of burial, such bases would require little insulation from the cold, be resistant to cosmic and solar radiation, be resistant to all but the largest meteorite strikes, and – barring settlement – be immune to pressure leaks.

For further reading
https://www.structuremag.org/?p=14114
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertha_(tunnel_boring_machine)
https://www.rhinocarbonfiber.com/composite-rebar

December ~ Superluminal Communication

I have a confession to make. For years I’ve watched series and movies in the Star Trek and Star Wars franchises, thrilled at the near-instantaneous space travel between distant star systems. Warp speed and hyper drive are both examples of superluminal speed – speed faster than the speed of light. It’s made possible by prying open wormholes posited to exist at sub-atomic scales.

However, I had to set credulity aside to enjoy the story lines as they unfolded. Why? Because the amount of energy required to open up a wormhole large enough for a space craft to fly into it would literally require the energy equivalent of the output of a star. With all due respect to the miracles of fusion power and matter-antimatter annihilation harnessed on these sci-fi franchises, the energy released would vaporize any spaceship long before opening the wormhole. Based on our current understanding of quantum physics, it just ain’t gonna happen.

But there’s another miracle occurring in these sci-fi franchises most of us completely overlook – superluminal communication across whole parsecs of space. Information miraculously exceeds the speed of light, violating the principal of locality in Einstein’s theory of relativity. It’s utterly impossible. Or is it?

In the realm of quantum communication, scientists experiment with a state of matter known as quantum entanglement. Recently, scientists have been creating pairs of entangled photons, electrons, even solid-state qubits. It’s possible to entangle whole tranches of matter. The super-cooled Bose-Einstein condensates are an example.

Polarization is one of many quantum states that can be entangled. Let’s assume we measure the polarity of a pair of entangled photons together and get a polarity of 0. If we were to measure or observe the polarization of the individual photons one would measure 1, and the other -1(I am simplifying this particular example). Furthermore, if we were to repeat this experiment, whatever polarity we measured for the first photon, measuring the second photon would always yield the opposite polarity. Always. Once measured, the entangled photons decohere(the entanglement wave function collapses, using quantum mechanics jargon), meaning they return to their previous independent random quantum state statuses.

Now let’s separate these entangled photons, measuring one across the room from the other. If you measure the first and get a result of 1, then I measure the second, I will always get a result of -1. Always. The behavior of one entangled particle, once measured, always influences the state of the other. Experiments show that this influence of one entangled particle’s quantum state on the other when measured occurs instantaneously, no matter how far apart the entangled particles are. This phenomenon is what Albert Einstein famously described as “spooky action at a distance”. Entanglement underpins the theory of quantum mechanics – and experimental observations made since Einstein’s pronouncement verify it.

Moving a unit of an entangled pair (or in the case of a photon, to allow it to travel) across a distance while maintaining its entanglement is called quantum teleportation. It’s the basis for the developing field of quantum communication. If a string of entangled photons were sent to a distant receiver, that receiver read the quantum states of the received photons, then sent the results back to the sender, who compared it to the states of their half of the entangled pairs, the sum should total 0 (in our simplified example). Any other sum indicates that someone intercepted the photons and measured (i.e. read) them, causing their entanglement wave function to collapse. The legitimate receiver would observe and return to the sender randomly decohered measurements that would not pair properly with the expected results. This ability to detect an eavesdropper is the basis for quantum encryption keys. Upon learning of the intercept, a new key would be generated and sent – the process repeated until the key was not intercepted – allowing the encrypted message to be sent. A quantum encrypted message is absolutely secure using an entangled quantum key.

In 2017, a Chinese science team headed by Jian-Wei Pan set the record for quantum teleportation between an orbiting satellite and a ground base in Tibet, 1,700km. There seems to be no limit to the distance that entangled pairs can maintain their quantum interaction, provided they don’t interact with their environment first and decohere. Which brings me back to the topic of superluminal communication.

Can the phenomenon of quantum teleportation – the separation of entangled matter – be exploited to somehow send messages superluminally? Current interpretation of quantum mechanics says “no”, but the theory of quantum mechanics is still incomplete. There is no “quantum gravity” as of yet. And the phenomenon of entanglement has yet to be fully explored and described.
Perhaps some day we’ll figure out how to reset entanglement after a measurement has been taken, allowing one party to “measure” the quantum states created by the other party, comparing the results to a catalog of quantum states that correspond to letters of the alphabet, for example.

When will we know whether or not this is possible? Probably not in my lifetime. But it sure makes for interesting fiction. So, with apologies to the quantum physicists in my reading audience, look for the employment of this yet undiscovered phenomenon in my upcoming book, Red Dragon.

Happy reading and…
Happy Holidays!

For further reading
https://quantumxc.com/blog/is-quantum-communication-faster-than-the-speed-of-light/
https://www.science.org/content/article/china-s-quantum-satellite-achieves-spooky-action-record-distance
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_entanglement