Newsletter Articles 2023

January ~ Brain-Computer Interfaces

Imagine waking up in the hospital to learn you’ve been paralyzed in an accident. Panic and fear wash over you as the realization sinks in that you may never walk, never hug your children, require assistance to get in and out of bed, to bathe, to toilet.

What must it be like to receive the diagnosis you have Lou Gehrig’s Disease—Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS). That one’s a death sentence, though a slow one entailing a progressive loss of muscle control and dignity, until the day you succumb to respiratory complications. When you can no longer breathe.

According to the Miami Project, 294,000 people within the United States are living with some degree of paralysis due to spinal cord injury. The ALS Society reports an additional 16,000 Americans are diagnosed with this dread neurodegenerative disease annually. Overall, 240,000 people have some form of neuromuscular disease in the US.

The common denominator for all these people is the loss or impairment of the connection between the motor cortex of the brain and the muscles, affecting movement and speech. But recent technological advances offer hope. For years, researchers have pursued a means to bridge the lost link between brain and body. The result is a device known as a Brian-Computer Interface (BMI).

Like an Electro Encephalogram (EEG), BMIs detect the electrical impulses generated by neuronal activity. EEG sensors are placed on the surface of the head and read cerebral activity diffused by distance and the skull. BMI electrodes, on the other hand, are set directly on or within the cerebral cortex, and can detect the signals of neuronal ensembles. These assemblages of neurons consistently signal together to affect a specific muscle or group of muscles for any given action, whether grasping an object, walking or speech.

Neuronal assemblages will continue to fire even after the connection between brain and muscles is lost. In other words, BMIs can detect intent, and communicate that to restore lost or impaired motor function, or to an external computer to generate text or speech, or to a prosthesis or a device like a motorized wheelchair.

The components of these remarkable devices are micrometer-scale wire sensors laid across or embedded within the motor cortex, a Complementary Metal Oxide Silicon chip (CMOS) that gathers and processes those signals, a battery to power the system, and a means to transmit the ensuing data stream to the outside.

The chip and electrodes must be surgically implanted. This exposes the recipient to the inherent risks associated with general anesthesia and infection. Earlier iterations were hard wired, offering a conduit for pathogens past the skin and skull. Modern designs utilize Bluetooth technology, diminishing long-term infection risk. Though tiny, the wires are rigid compared to the neurons they contact. Bodily motion causes the surfaces to rub against each other, often resulting in inflammation and scar tissue, which can diminish and eventually block the sensor’s ability to read signals. The accuracy and speed of any BCI is proportional to the chip’s number of sensors.

Researchers and commercial enterprises have developed alternative designs to mitigate the above risks and boost performance. Elon Musk’s company Neuralink employs an implantable Bluetooth device, the Link, with 1,024 micron-scale sensors. Its battery is induction rechargeable. Neuralink is developing a robotic surgical system to safely and accurately place the electrodes. Time saved over conventional implant surgery could possibly result in an outpatient procedure, eliminating the need for general anesthesia altogether. At present, Neuralink is pursuing FDA approval for experimental human trials.

Synchron is approaching the risk of inflammation and scarring by inserting the BCI sensors into the cerebral cortex via blood vessels. The sensor array is integrated into a stent. When expanded, it becomes integral with the vessel’s epithelial cells, reducing the danger of rejection and scarring. In July ,2022, Synchron announced its Stentrode device had been installed in its first patient as part of an FDA trial. The minimally invasive procedure took about two hours.

BrainGate’s BCI has been enrolled in clinical trials since 2004. In 2021, they reported FDA approval for their wireless Bluetooth version. Just this month (January 2023) BrainGate released study results that demonstrated their brain chip implants showed a safety profile comparable to other brain implants long used to manage neurodegenerative disorders.

In 2021, the Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST) announced they developed a soft implant. They utilized an open polymer chain electrode, instead of a metal wire, allowing unhindered molecular exchange between neurons and the cerebral environment. It also enabled the sensor to flex with the adjacent cells, avoiding inflammation and scarring.

BCI technology stands at the threshold of commercialization. Ever-increasing sensor numbers coupled with advances in CMOS technology are leading to smaller size BCI designs with lower power requirements, and higher signal acquisition fidelity. Use of flexible organic materials will lead to longer lasting implants, reducing the need and risk of follow-up surgeries.

Fifteen years from now, mind-controlled prostheses, artificial neuromotor control, artificial speech and mind controlled access devices will be commonplace(assuming insurance coverage). Neurodegenerative diseases like ALS may become manageable chronic conditions, allowing a degree of independence and dignity denied to victims today.

For further Reading
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brain%E2%80%93computer_interface#:~:text=A%20brain%E2%80%93computer%20interface%20(BCI,a%20computer%20or%20robotic%20limb.
https://neuralink.com/
https://www.fiercebiotech.com/medtech/synchron-implants-brain-computer-interface-first-us-patient-paralysis-trial
https://neurosciencenews.com/implanted-bci-neurotech-22258/
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/new-brain-implant-transmits-full-words-from-neural-signals/
https://www.massdevice.com/brain-computer-interface-bci-companies/

February ~ Hypoxic Dead Zones

This month I’m departing from my usual practice of zeroing in on a specific emerging technology. Rather, I’m looking at a little-discussed consequence of several contemporary technologies as disparate as agricultural practices, sewerage treatment, and our reliance on fossil fuels.

Hypoxic (low oxygen) dead zones occur in both fresh and saltwater bodies when nutrients such as nitrates and phosphates are introduced. Under normal conditions, these are present in minute (dilute) quantities. They are critical for plant(algae)growth. But because of their scarcity, algal abundance is usually held in check. Increasing the availability of dissolved nitrates and phosphates always increases the growth of these waterborne plants.

Lots of members of the food chain feed on algae. From zooplankton to filter feeders like oysters, mussels, and clams. Even certain vertebrate fish rely on it as a food source. So, what’s the problem?

Algal growth is so rapid, herbivores can’t keep up. All that excess algae sinks to the bottom of the water body where it inevitably dies, becoming lunch for sediment-dwelling microbes. Dissolved oxygen is used up, replaced by the byproduct of respiration, CO2, and eventually methane. All those zooplankton, filter feeders, and vertebrates in the ensuing dead zone suffocate, adding their biomass to the microbial feeding frenzy occurring on the seafloor or lakebed. This vicious cycle continues as long as the unnatural nutrient levels persist.

There are two primary sources of excess nutrients: agriculture and human sewerage—both raw AND treated. As a child growing up in Seattle, I witnessed the eutrophication (the formal name of the process of explosive nutrient-fed algal growth and resultant decline of free oxygen) of Lake Washington. Fish kills were routine. As a result, a regional entity was created—METRO—that built sewerage treatment plants and a vast network of sanitary sewer lines to carry sewerage from homes and apartments to those plants. Treated effluent was discharged into Puget Sound, where strong currents diluted the nutrient load, avoiding dead zones.

As an adult, fish kills became commonplace in a remote, long and narrow arm of Puget Sound called Hood Canal. The south half of Hood Canal was shallow and experienced little of the tidal currents seen farther north. The surrounding communities, though rural, grew and were numerous. All relied on septic systems. While well-maintained septic systems prevented bacterial contamination, the dissolved nitrates and phosphates leached into Hood Canal. The dead zone became an annual summer event. Fish kills were common. The famous oyster beds were affected.

Most Americans are familiar with the summer dead zones that annually develop around the perimeter of the northern Gulf of Mexico sea floor. The largest nutrient contributor is the Mississippi River. Its muddy waters carry far more than eroded sediment. Roughly 350 thousand square miles of the Mississippi River’s 1.245 million square mile basin is agricultural land. Not to single out agriculture, the effluent of some 20 million people finds its way into the river as well. The result? The Mississippi transports some 1.6 million metric tons of nitrogen and 145 thousand metric tons of phosphorus into the Gulf of Mexico per year.

OK, if hypoxic dead zones are common knowledge, what’s the “little-discussed consequence?” I’m glad you asked. In addition to higher CO2 and methane levels in hypoxic dead zones another gas is also generated by anaerobic seafloor microbes—H2S—hydrogen sulfide.

Those who have visited mud flats at low tide are familiar with the ubiquitous rotten egg smell given off by exposed tidal sediments. In the aquatic environments of dead zones, the lower layers of water can become saturated with H2S.

Hydrogen sulfide is quite toxic to oxygen-breathing organisms. Prolonged human exposure results in severe headaches followed by confusion, unconsciousness—and if the victim is not removed to fresh air—death.

If nutrient loads are constant, rising water temperatures decrease free oxygen in dead zones, increasing hydrogen sulfide concentrations. Under certain conditions, H2S will migrate to the surface, where it is released into the atmosphere. These events are called hydrogen sulfide eruptions. Extensive H2S eruptions occur in the southeast Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Namibia. As water in the Gulf of Mexico continues to warm, H2S eruptions may arise there as well.

Scientists have implicated high marine and atmospheric H2S levels for the Great Dying extinction event at the end of the Permian Era 250 million years ago. 96% of all marine species and 70% of land species went extinct. Runaway climate warming is understood to be the proximate cause of the high atmospheric H2S concentrations. Many scientists today are concerned that if global temperatures increase five degrees Celsius a similar H2S mass extinction event could be triggered.

I don’t say this to be alarmist. In fact, I believe human-caused climate change will be arrested and reversed before humanity faces a similar catastrophe. The climate at the end of the Permian was ten degrees Celsius warmer than today—hellishly hot, even at the poles. But I am convinced of an increase in H2S eruptions within the Gulf of Mexico, and I’m willing to include the phenomenon in my fifth book.

In the meantime, federal and state authorities are regulating Mississippi River nutrient levels with the ultimate goal of ending the seasonal dead zones. But while that effort proceeds, I’m feverishly writing books 4 and 5. With a little luck and persistence, book 4 should be published late this summer. Till then, keep cool—and happy reading.

For further Reading
https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/deadzone.html#:~:text=%22Dead%20zone%22%20is%20a%20more,of%20oxygen%20in%20the%20water.&text=Less%20oxygen%20dissolved%20in%20the,as%20fish%2C%20leave%20the%20area
https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/dead-zone
https://www.epa.gov/sites/default/files/2015-10/documents/htf_report_to_congress_final_-_10.1.15.pdf
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/13155/hydrogen-sulfide-eruptions-along-the-coast-of-namibia#:~:text=These%20bacteria%20emit%20hydrogen%20sulfide,to%20precipitate%20into%20the%20ocean
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/permian-extinction#:~:text=About%20250%20million%20years%20ago,species%20in%20the%20seas%20survived
https://www.space.com/permian-extinction-microbes-hydrogen-sulfide.html

March ~ Autonomous Vehicles: An Update

In July 2021 I looked at the state of AVs—autonomous vehicles. My EPSILON Sci-Fi Thriller Series features self-driving cars. After over a year and a half I thought I’d see what progress the technology has made, if any, and see if my predictions for the near-future need any tweaking.

Major automakers, plus tech giants Amazon, Alphabet, and Apple have invested over $75 billion in AV. Some have begun deployment in limited circumstances. Check out the (not exhaustive) list of firms that have deployed this tech on public streets and corporate campuses:
● Last summer my wife sent me a video of a driverless steering wheel in a moving car. She and her cousin were riding in a Waymo rideshare in Chandler, Arizona. They both sat in the back, the front seat entirely empty. The company will start offering rides in Los Angeles and has already been hauling beer between Dallas and Houston.
● Cruise, a GMC subsidiary, operates a robotaxi service in San Francisco and plans to expand it to Phoenix and Austin, Texas.
● Zoox tested its technology in Seattle in Toyota Highlanders. Last month, one of its purpose-built robotaxis made its first voyage in Foster City, California, the San Francisco suburb where the company is based. Starting this spring, employees will be able to hop on an autonomous taxi for a 1-mile ride connecting two buildings on the corporate campus.
● Autonomous trucking startup Kodiak Robotics recently completed a coast-to-coast commercial run linking Texas, California and Florida for 10 Roads Express, a USPS mail carrier. The company is beginning to transport furniture for Ikea.
● Embark currently retrofits Peterbuilt trucks with its self-driving tech and runs a fleet of about a dozen that are already generating revenue.
● TuSimple announced that Union Pacific Railroad will be the first rail customer to move freight on TuSimple’s fully automated trucking route between the Tucson and Phoenix, Arizona metro areas.
● Einride and GE Appliances deployed the first cab-less, self-driving, electric truck on a US public road.

We are beginning to see the industry sort itself into winners and losers. Argo AI, a promising developer of self-driving car technology that raised billions of dollars from Ford and Volkswagen, shut down last October.

Human error accounts for roughly 26,000 annual traffic deaths. The promise of autonomous vehicles is to drastically reduce this grim statistic. Unfortunately, the AV accident rate remains stubbornly at 9.1 accidents per million miles driven, compared to 4.1 accidents per million miles for regular vehicles. The majority of accidents involving self-driving cars are less severe and involve being hit from the rear by human-driven vehicles. This could point to a programming bias. It would be interesting to see how developers train their AI models in defensive driving—at least for this type of crash.

The accidents might also be due to a general weakness of artificial intelligence. AV is, after all, AI on wheels. As I noted in the June 2022 issue of JOTH, artificial intelligence lacks common sense. We humans can negotiate a new or unique situation effortlessly to take the correct action. Give me a coffee cup without a handle, and I’ll know how to pick it up without spilling the contents. That outcome is far from guaranteed by an AI-controlled robot trained to pick up a cup by its handle. Most developers are now working with synthetic data, artificially generating rare or infrequent events to add to perception training databases for their models.

The high AV accident rate, and concomitant public scrutiny has slowed deployment. But the algorithms are constantly learning, and sensor technology is constantly improving, bringing the promise of safe autonomous vehicles ever closer. But obviously, we’re not there yet.

Much has been made in the news about the current semiconductor chip shortage. The bipartisan CHIPS Act of 2022 return the supply chain to the United States largely to shore up national security. But returning chip manufacturing to the US won’t necessarily solve the bottleneck. In 2019, China was responsible for 80% of rare earths imports into the US, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

As of Dec 14, 2022, China accounts for 63 percent of the world’s rare earth mining, 85 percent of rare earth processing, and 92 percent of rare earth magnet production. Through commercial acquisition, China controls all but one major mine in the US today. As the US claws back its technology supply chain, it must find new sources to lessen China’s stranglehold on US chip manufacturing.

Rare earth elements are critical doping components of semiconductor chips and are extensively used in other high technology. As clean energy, EVs, smart commercial and military tech proliferate, the strain on the supply chain will grow worse, leading to conflict—the premise for the race to mine rare earth elements on Mars in my EPSILON Sci-Fi Thriller Series.

Untying drivers from a steering wheel in an AV will lead to vehicle interior innovations. Some self-driving vehicles will become mobile offices, complete with desk, laptop dock and unlimited WiFi. Travel time will truly become productive, even down to group video chats or meetings, all while riding.

The non-business experience will revolve around connection to social media and gaming. Imagine virtual chats and playing high-res video games on built-in wide screens, or with virtual reality goggles as you ride.

An outcome of AV adoption will be increased roadway capacity. Typical lane capacity for freeway lanes is 1200 to1400 vehicles per hour, under ideal conditions and safe driver spacing at 70mph. Safe driver spacing is dependent on human reaction time. It takes a driver ¾ second to recognize a hazard, then another ¾ second to apply the brakes or turn the steering wheel. An AV can recognize and react nearly instantaneously. Highspeed platoons of vehicles mere feet apart will become commonplace on freeways.

However, expect an awkward transition for drivers. Safety and roadway capacity will remain stubbornly problematic as long as self-driving vehicles share the road with human drivers. Large urban centers will slowly begin carving out AV-exclusive zones, expanding them block-by-block until human-driven vehicles are banned within city limits. This will take twenty years or longer—enough time to retire “older” cars from active service.

Personal car ownership will decline. Americans possess a deep relationship with their cars, “You’ll pry my steering wheel from my cold dead fingers.” But the economics of car ownership may erode that love affair. Today, expect to pay a $15,000 premium for a Mustang Mach-E over a comparable gas-powered model (I’m excluding EV operating cost-savings here). The price of AV sensors and software could be double that. Assuming true level 5 AV was available today, a Mustang Mach-AV would likely run around $75,000. It may boil down to a binary choice, especially for lower income families: home ownership or car ownership.

Passenger AVs, particularly high-end models, will be owned by the wealthy – a new status symbol. These individual owners will arrange to rent their vehicles to rideshare companies rather than pay for parking while at work. Rideshares, rented from individuals, leased from manufacturers or owned outright will ply city streets, offering convenient transportation on demand. Autonomous vehicles will feed long-line bus rapid transit on dedicated lanes and rail rapid transit for longer local and regional trips.

Traffic signals will disappear, replaced by cloud communication between vehicles and master traffic operations centers that regulate traffic city-wide. Pedestrian signals will remain, strictly for the benefit of corridor traffic operations. Pedestrians could safely choose to disregard “don’t walk” signals but will incur a hefty fine for diminishing traffic flow on the street network if they do.
Prevalence by 2035.

EV sales are booming. According to Bloomberg, global market trends are being driven upward by a combination of government incentives, improvements in battery technology, and more compelling vehicle models by more companies. In 2022 EV cars accounted for 9% of global sales, EV buses 44%, and vans and trucks 1%. Here in the US in 2022 the Tesla Model 3 EV became the largest selling sedan in California, outcompeting the internal combustion Toyota Camry.

AV adoption will certainly lag EV adoption, primarily due to slow technology maturation and high cost as I noted above. The one-percenters will be early adopters but rideshare firms, who will be highly motivated to slash their driver payrolls, will drive the market for passenger AVs.

Busses are ideal candidates for AV adoption, with their fixed routes and stops. Many demonstrations today run fixed routes within large corporate campuses. The trend will be to migrate to ever larger routes in less controlled environments typical of urban center bus routes.

Trucking companies are already incrementally adopting AV, beginning with the freeway portion of long-hauls, then local deliveries where street networks meet certain limiting criteria. But commercial adoption will be swift once the robotic vs human safety disparity is addressed.

The occupation of “driver”, whether commercial bus, rideshare, or freight truck is imperiled. Those in the industry should make an exit strategy. Like the elevator operator of a century ago, commercial logistics firms have a huge financial incentive to replace drivers. Not only will it be cheaper, AIs won’t require rest breaks mandated by federal regulators, driving three times the distance of a human driver in twenty-four hours. AV adoption in this sector will be swift and irreversible.

So, will Ann Waters have easy access to autonomous rideshares in 2035 as she does in the EPSILON Sci-Fi Thriller Series? Probably. Will she be able to afford her own used AV on a rocket scientist’s salary? That depends on whether she earns a comparable salary to her male counterparts. The optimist in me still says she can.

Like what you just read? Share this issue with friends and encourage them to subscribe to receive free short stories, news about upcoming promotions and books by yours truly and other exciting Sci-Fi authors!

Want a deeper dive? Check out these sources, listed in the order of discussion.
Autonomous Vehicles and Their Impact on the Economy. Forbes. https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbestechcouncil/2022/02/14/autonomous-vehicles-and-their-impact-on-the-economy/?sh=2a08489860de
The Auto Industry’s $75B Bet on Autonomy Is Not Paying Off. Auto News. https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/auto-industrys-75b-bet-autonomy-not-paying#:~:text=Autonomous%20vehicle%20companies%20and%20suppliers,services%20after%20all%20that%20investment.
Argo AI, Ford’sSelf-Driving Venture with Volkswagon is Shutting Down. Forbes. https://www.forbes.com/sites/alanohnsman/2022/10/26/argo-ai-fords-self-driving-venture-with-volkswagen-is-shutting-down/?sh=5db0b3377241
Top Self-Driving Trucks Startups. Tracxn. https://tracxn.com/d/trending-themes/Startups-in-Self-Driving-Trucks
Parallel Domain Says Autonomous Driving Won’t Scale Without Synthetic Data. Tech Crunch +.https://techcrunch.com/2022/11/16/parallel-domain-says-autonomous-driving-wont-scale-without-synthetic-data/#:~:text=Most%20self%2Ddriving%20vehicle%20companies,collected%20from%20the%20real%20world.
25 Intriguing Self-Driving Car Statistics You Should Know, Carsurance. https://carsurance.net/blog/self-driving-car-statistics/
Distracted Driving Statistics: Research and Facts in 2021, The Zebra. https://www.thezebra.com/resources/research/distracted-driving-statistics/
Big Tech’s Obsession is all About Taking Eyes Off the Road, Seattle Times. https://www.seattletimes.com/business/technology/big-techs-car-obsession-is-all-about-taking-eyes-off-the-road/
China Rare Earth Market Report 2019-2023: China’s Rare Earth Exports to the United States Accounted for 78% of U.S. Rare Earth Imports, PR Newswire. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/china-rare-earth-market-report-2019-2023-chinas-rare-earth-exports-to-the-united-states-accounted-for-78-of-us-rare-earth-imports-300856574.html
Car Ownership Statistics in the US. Value Penguin. https://www.valuepenguin.com/auto-insurance/car-ownership-statistics#:~:text=The%20rate%20of%20car%20ownership,vehicles%20in%20the%20same%20period.
Highway Capacity Manual, Appendix B https://ccag.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/cmp_2005_Appendix_B.pdf
Electrical Vehicle Outlook 2022, Bloomberg NEF. https://about.bnef.com/electric-vehicle-outlook/

April ~ China’s Mars Ambitions

China plays a prominent role in my EPSILON Sci-Fi Thriller Series. Both the fictional communist and imperial governments monopolize rare earth elements, using China’s economic position to its global advantage. EPSILON, with the support of the U.S. government, opens an entirely new market when it ships back processed oxides to Earth from its Mars Prospector mining operation. Which raises the question, does the real government harbor ambitions for controlling Mars like they do in my books, or are its intentions for the Red Planet less malign? Do their plans clash with those of NASA and SpaceX?

In December 2022, Wu Yansheng, chairman of China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC), noted the Chinese National Space Agency (CNSA) proposes a robotic sample return mission in the next 10 to 15 years, to deliver material to Earth as early as 2031. The Tianwen-3 mission involves a pair of launches in the 2028 launch window. If successful, it would be China’s first-ever return of Mars samples.

The CNSA robotic lunar rover Yutu-2, of its Chang’e 4mission to the Moon, entered orbit in December of 2018 before making the first soft landing on the far side of the Moon in January of 2019. Yutu-2 is currently operational as the longest-lived lunar rover and the first to traverse the far side of the Moon.

China landed its Zhurong rover on Mars in May 2021, joining NASA in exploring the red planet’s surface. But CNSA has not provided recent updates, and orbital images show the vehicle remains stationary.

The Chinese government has not touted any economic benefits attributable to its Mars missions, rather extoling technological advancements and prestige.

NASA’s website states, “The goal of NASA’s Mars Exploration Program is to explore Mars and to provide a continuous flow of scientific information and discovery through a carefully selected series of robotic orbiters, landers and mobile laboratories interconnected by a high-bandwidth Mars/Earth communications network.

The agency will use what we learn on the Moon to prepare for humanity’s next giant leap—sending astronauts to Mars. Exploration of the Moon and Mars is intertwined. The Moon provides an opportunity to test new tools, instruments and equipment that could be used on Mars, including human habitats, life support systems, and technologies and practices that could help us build self-sustaining outposts away from Earth.”

As of January 2023, NASA operates two rovers on Mars—Curiosity and Perseverance. In the late 2020s, a lander, rocket, and multiple helicopters, would be launched, part of NASA’s effort to retrieve and deliver the samples collected by Perseverance. These are expected to be brought to Earth in the early to mid-2030s. The space agency, after decades of criticism around its Red Planet ambitions, has gone silent regarding a firm timeline.

Both China and the US are pursuing lunar missions first, to gain experience and potentially use the moon as a jump-off to Mars.

SpaceX plans for early missions to Mars to involve small fleets of its Starship spacecraft, funded by public–private partnerships. By refueling Starship in orbit using tankers, it will be able to transport larger payloads and more astronauts to Mars. Once infrastructure is established and the launch cost is reduced further, colonization can begin.

A year ago March, company owner Elon Musk tweeted that he sees 2029 as the earliest humans might first step on Mars, 60years since the first moon landing in 1969. The next likely launch window occurs in 2032. If his target date slips into the 2030s, it will be closer to the timeframe most experts expect NASA to send the first astronauts to Mars.

Granted FAA approval, SpaceX aims to perform the first Starship orbital test flight today. The mission is planned to launch from SpaceX’s Starbase in coastal Texas. After separation, the prototype Super Heavy booster will splash down around 30 km (20 mi) from the shoreline. Starship will achieve orbital velocity, then descend into the Pacific near Hawaii. NASA has selected Starship for the Artemis 3 moon landing in the mid-2020s.

The new cold war is affecting the U.S./China relationship vis-à-vis space. Geopolitical headwinds mean China and Russia have so far rebuffed the U.S.-led Artemis Accords, a cooperation framework for the civil exploration of the moon, Mars and other astronomical bodies. There were twenty-three signatories as of December 2022.

While the accords are explicitly grounded in the U.N.’s Outer Space Treaty of 1967, which China and Russia have ratified, disagreement remains over the endorsement of resource extraction by national space agencies.

The Chinese communist party is failure-averse when it comes to their space program. Administrators and engineers are cautious and conservative in their approach to planning and technological development to avoid public embarrassment to the government. Progress is slow but steady, building on previous successes.

It is unclear if China will allow the U.S. to goad it into a genuine space race with advancing timelines. Barring such program acceleration and risk, expect China’s first manned Mars mission in the late 2030s or early 2040s.

For several years NASA has moved toward a services model of procurement. Prior administrator, Jim Bridenstine was fond of saying that the agency wanted to be “one of many customers” for companies that were building products and services for spaceflight. NASA has leveraged its position as a government agency to pick the top vehicles and technology from commercial space enterprises, saving its limited budget for development of expensive infrastructure programs like the Artemis SLS booster.

As the SLS program has reaffirmed, NASA’s use of traditional cost-plus contracting is slow and prone to budget overruns. Procuring a combination of cost-plus and services should allow it to send a manned mission to Mars by the mid-2030s.

SpaceX may be in the best position to reach The Red Planet first. Doing so might even work to NASA’s advantage. Rather than invest in cost-plus contracts to develop the flight hardware, they might opt to let the company shoulder development costs, demonstrate its viability, then hire them to transport personnel and equipment for its preferred scientific missions.

SpaceX differs philosophically from China and NASA, who heavily weight their missions in favor of science and research. Both also value Mars for strategic superiority (i.e., their ability to dictate the other’s behavior). Musk, on the other hand, sees Mars more in economic terms(i.e., colonization), a quest to extend the human economy toward the stars.

If the current cold war between the U.S. and China is not resolved, it will shape what happens on The Red Planet. Neither country trusts the other. Actions and reactions will quickly lead to a militarization of space in general and Mars in particular.

What if the CNSA reaches Mars first? The Spratley Islands and the South China Sea are instructive. Atolls became military bases, complete with airfields, antiaircraft facilities and missile batteries. What was once international waters became a tightly controlled economic zone. Recall that China has refused to sign the Artemis Accords. On both the moon and The Red Planet. Look for a proliferation of small robotic stations to extend control around any manned bases. Partner countries will participate only at a guaranteed Chinese profit or benefit. Expect a growing PLA military presence over time on Mars (decades).

What happens if NASA reaches the Red Planet first? Mars could end up being administered much like a National Forest here at home, with special regions and zones of intrinsic scientific value set aside for research. Economic zones would be reserved for permanent settlements, resource extraction and processing. The agency would freely establish scientific collaborations. Bases, extraction and processing would be run by concessionaires set up for those purposes, not unlike company towns here on Earth. Because all this will develop simultaneous with Chinese colonization, expect a growing U.S. military presence over time (decades).

If SpaceX reaches Mars first, the end result will be similar to a NASA-first scenario, except the economic facilities will arise first, followed by designation of scientific areas.

I anticipate Mars to be divided up into zones of influence controlled by “the free world” and China’s authoritarian axis. However, open conflict won’t occur for several decades, if ever. Given the vast expense and fragility of facilities on The Red Planet, my hope is that cooler heads will prevail. Humans, at least on Mars, will learn to coexist. Open conflict would only exist in fiction, where it belongs.

Want a deeper dive? Check out these sources, listed in the order of discussion.
China Plans to Send its First Crewed Mission to Mars in 2033 and Build a Base There. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/24/china-plans-to-send-its-first-crewed-mission-to-mars-in-2033.html
China Sets Out Clear and Independent Long-Term Vision for Space. Space News. https://spacenews.com/china-sets-out-clear-and-independent-long-term-vision-for-space/
Inside China’s Plans to Conquer Space. Newsweek. https://www.newsweek.com/china-space-moon-plans-space-station-1774538#:~:text=Xi%20Jinping’s%20Space%20Dream&text=This%20December%2C%20China%20intends%20to,Earth%20asteroids%20and%20icy%20comets.
Mars Exploration. NASA. https://mars.nasa.gov/science/goals/
Human Mission to Mars. Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars#:~:text=The%20first%20crewed%20Mars%20Mission,is%20proposed%20for%20the%202030s.
Explore: Moon to Mars. NASA. https://www.nasa.gov/topics/moon-to-mars/overview
SpaceX Mars Program. Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Mars_program#:~:text=SpaceX%20aims%20to%20perform%20the,mi)%20from%20the%20Texas%20shoreline.
Mars &Beyond. SpaceX. https://www.spacex.com/human-spaceflight/mars/
Yutu-2.Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yutu-2
NASA finds China’s Mars Rover after Months of Inactivity. New York Times. https://www.google.com/search?q=chinese+mars+rover+update&sxsrf=APwXEdfnGKuTryuWRht6iaW1pQDCnCz1rA%3A1681338225184&ei=cS83ZKT0CriD0PEPs7ixsA0&oq=Chinese+Mars+rover&gs_lcp=Cgxnd3Mtd2l6LXNlcnAQARgBMgwIABANEIAEEBQQhwIyDAgAEA0QgAQQFBCHAjIHCAAQDRCABDIHCAAQDRCABDIHCAAQDRCABDIHCAAQDRCABDIHCAAQDRCABDIHCAAQDRCABDIECAAQHjIECAAQHjoKCAAQRxDWBBCwAzoGCAAQBxAeSgQIQRgAUKYHWKcMYKWtAWgBcAF4AIABVIgBnwKSAQE0mAEAoAEByAEIwAEB&sclient=gws-wiz-serp
Lockheed Martin Makes a Big Bet on Commercial Space and the Moon. Ars Technica. https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/04/lockheed-martin-makes-a-big-bet-on-commercial-space-and-the-moon/

May ~ Nuclear Thermal Rockets

In January of this year NASA and the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) announced a collaboration to demonstrate a Nuclear Thermal Rocket (NTR) engine in space. The demonstration is scheduled for 2026.

There has been interest in recent years in NTR by the United States Space Force and DARPA for orbital and cis-lunar uses. NASA is interested in the agreement for future missions to the moon and Mars. The project partnership is called the Demonstration Rocket for Agile Cislunar Operations, or DRACO.

NTR provides greater thrust than chemical rockets. Heat from a fission reaction replaces the chemical energy of the propellants in the engine. Liquid hydrogen is heated to a high temperature in a reactor and then expands through a nozzle, creating thrust. The nuclear heat source has a higher exhaust velocity and is expected to double or triple payload capacity compared to chemicals that store energy internally.

The kinetic energy per molecule of propellant is determined by its temperature, whether the heat source is a nuclear reactor or a chemical reaction. At any given temperature, lightweight propellant molecules carry just as much kinetic energy as heavier ones and therefore have more energy per unit mass. This makes low molecular mass propellants more effective than high molecular mass compounds.

Chemical rockets use the waste products from their reactions to produce thrust. Most liquid-fueled engines employ either hydrogen or hydrocarbon combustion, and the exhaust is mainly water (molecular mass 18) and/or carbon dioxide (molecular mass 44). Nuclear thermal rockets using gaseous hydrogen (molecular mass 2) have a theoretical maximum specific impulse that is three to four-and-a half times greater than those of chemical engines.

At temperatures above 1,500 degrees C, molecular hydrogen (H2) dissociates to atomic hydrogen (H), making the engine even more efficient.

NTRs use low enriched uranium fuel, so there is a risk of radioactive contamination. A rupture of the reactor vessel, whether caused by a launch failure, runaway reaction, flaws in design or material fatigue, could scatter material into the environment.

Before criticality occurs, solid core NTR fuel is not particularly hazardous. Once the reactor has been started for the first time, highly radioactive short-life fission products are produced, as well as less radioactive but extremely long-lived radio isotopes. Additionally, all engine structures exposed to direct neutron bombardment become radioactive.

Under DRACO, Idaho National Laboratory is advancing and testing fuel composites at its Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) facility. The lab is examining how they perform in the harsh thermal and radiation environments needed for nuclear thermal propulsion.

Current solid-core NTR designs are intended to greatly limit the dispersion and break-up of radioactive elements in the event of a catastrophic failure.

Launch from Earth may be impractical given the rocket’s higher exhaust temperatures and speeds. Consider the damage SpaceX’s April Starship lift-off caused to its launch facilities. Regardless, a cold launched Mars Transfer Vehicle would be assembled in-orbit utilizing a number of NASA SLS or SpaceX Starship payload lifts.

NASA is looking at the technology to facilitate its preferred shorter-stay class of missions to keep the roundtrip crewed mission duration to about two years. This takes advantage of optimal planetary alignment for a low-energy transit for the first leg of the trip and making the higher-energy transit for the return leg thanks to the new technology.

The more powerful NTRs offer a shorter flight time to Mars, estimated at three to four months, compared to six to nine months using chemical engines. Shorter transit time reduces crew exposure to cosmic rays for stays of up to fifty days in the vicinity of the Red Planet (thirty days on the surface). It also diminishes supply requirements and the need for more robust mission systems. Other benefits include increased science payload capacity and higher power for instrumentation and communication.

Nuclear thermal propulsion could allow for more flexible abort scenarios, allowing astronauts to return to Earth at multiple times if needed, including immediately upon arrival at Mars.

NASA is looking at two types of nuclear propulsion for human missions. Thermal, like DRACO, and electric as discussed in the June 2021edition of JOTH and used in the fictitious DeepStar in my EPSILON Sci-Fi Thriller series. But to meet NASA’s two-year mission duration, a nuclear electric system would need a large chemical stage for the overall thrust required for a human mission. In the absence of a radical technological advancement, the space agency is committed to NTR for the first decade of its Mars missions.

NASA’s press releases discuss DRACO in terms of scientific missions to Mars. To get there, the space agency has fully embraced a lease for services model to use cheaper commercial launch vehicles and mission infrastructure. The Department of Energy enforces strict requirements surrounding the possession of fissile materials by private companies. The risks of testing and accidental loss of containment are high. In an about-face to their lease for services, I expect NASA to develop and lease nuclear thermal rocket boosters to qualifying corporations.

I foresee a bidding war developing between companies like EPSILON, and perhaps countries with Mars ambitions. SpaceX’s Starship and NASA’s NTR will compete to shuttle personnel and equipment to and from the Red Planet during the early frontier days of the 2030s.

Want a deeper dive? Check out these sources, listed in the order of discussion.
https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-announces-nuclear-thermal-propulsion-reactor-concept-awards
https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/tdm/nuclear-thermal-propulsion/index.html
https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-darpa-will-test-nuclear-engine-for-future-mars-missions
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_thermal_rocket

June ~ Space Tourism

“Buddy, can you spare $55 million?” Granted, inflation has changed the value of a dollar in the ninety-plus years since the Great Depression. But so also have our expectations about what money can buy.

Yesteryear’s millionaires have given way to today’s billionaires. And as their fortunes have grown, so have their proclivities for ever more unique — and expensive — ways to spend their leisure time and their money. Since April 28, 2001, when Dennis Tito became the first private citizen to pay for the novelty of going to space, close to sixty have paid — or been gifted by third parties — the experience.

But not to worry, the merely rich will not be left behind. Later this month, the paltry sum of $450,000 will secure a seat in Virgin Galactic’s Galactic 01 to the edge of the atmosphere, and a view from fifty-five miles above the Earth.

There is an upside to all this conspicuous consumption. Space tourism is funding the growth of commercial aerospace development in general. The day is coming when rank-and-file wage earners will participate, too, as service providers on the tourism side, as lab and computer techs for zero-g manufacturing, and as extraterrestrial miners and resource extractors.

Here on terra firma, there are two primary classes of firms we deal with in the tourism industry. Builders, those who manufacture the facilities we use, and fixers, those who book our experiences in them. Those who provide cruise ships, hotels and aircraft are builders, although antitrust action by world governments has separated the airlines from the airplane manufacturers. Tour companies or apps like Expedia.com are today’s fixers. And yes, I know there’s some crossover out there. As we shall see, the same applies to space tourism. So let’s dive in, in alphabetical order.

Axiom Space (a fixer) was the first company to organize an orbital package to the International Space Station (ISS). On April 8, 2022, SpaceX launched three space tourists who paid $55 million apiece. The Crew Dragon spacecraft was commanded by Axiom’s commander, retired NASA astronaut Michael López-Alegría. The mission, labeled AX-1, was the first to send multiple tourists to the ISS.

Based on lessons learned on AX-1, NASA issued new requirements on August 3, 2022, mandating that future officially sanctioned Private Astronaut Missions (PAMs) to the International Space Station must be led by a former NASA astronaut as the mission commander, plus additional measures to reduce stress on ISS staff and ground support.

Its second ISS space tourist mission, AX-2 safely splashed down on May 30, 2023, commanded by retired NASA astronaut Peggy Whitson.

Blue Origin (a builder) is locked in a heated competition for short duration suborbital rides above the Kármán Line(sixty-two miles), the generally accepted boundary of space. The first New Shepard commercial flight included Jeff Bezos on July 20, 2021, reaching an altitude of sixty-six miles. Six flights bearing six passengers each have occurred to date. Blue Origin typically charges $200,000 to $300,000 per person. This cost includes a one-hour flight and a three-hour preparation program.

Space Adventures (a fixer) was founded in 1998. Its packages include zero-gravity atmospheric flights and orbital spaceflights.

On April 28, 2001, the company sent Dennis Tito on a trip to the International Space Station, via a Soyuz spacecraft. He spent eight days there. The cost of that inaugural flight? $20 million, a bargain compared to the $55 million that seems to be today’s going rate. To date, Space Adventures has organized nine such Soyez flights to the ISS.

The company’s most recent expedition included Japanese billionaire Yusaku Maezawa and his assistant, Yozo Hirano. Maezawa promoted the trip as personal training for a future circumlunar flight.

SpaceX (a builder) launched Axiom Mission 1 (AX-1) for Axiom Space on April 8, 2022. Three space tourists under the command of retired NASA astronaut Michael López-Alegría flew to the ISS on a Crew Dragon spacecraft. Ax-1 was the first mission to send multiple space tourists there.

The Crew Dragon seats up to seven passengers. NASA’s contract pays SpaceX to shuttle four astronauts per flight to the ISS, leaving open the possibility of mixed agency and private crews.

Virgin Galactic (a builder) competes most directly with Blue Origin in the suborbital space tourism market. The VSSUnity completed a successful test flight with four passengers on July 11, 2021, to an altitude of nearly ninety kilometers (fifty-six miles). The company flew its second and final test flight in May of this year. As I noted earlier in this feature, Virgin Galactic flights are $450,000 per passenger.

Unique to this company, Virgin’s spacecraft are launched at 50,000 feet from a mothership. They operate more like a space shuttle, steering and gliding to their landings. Blue Origin relies on space capsules that return and land via parachute.

What does the future hold for space tourism? Again, in alphabetical order:

Axiom Space (as a builder, not a fixer), in collaboration with Thales Alenia Space has begun construction of Axiom Station, a commercial space station destined to replace and augment ISS capabilities after it retires in 2030. Axiom Space is preparing for a 2025 launch of the first section of its low-Earth orbit station.

Axiom Station will host people, research and manufacturing for numerous industries using techniques restricted to microgravity. The orbital facility will also allow private companies and national governments to continue the research and development currently only available on the ISS. Expect an increase in tourist-related activities, as Axiom Station will be owned and operated privately.

In addition to New Shepard suborbital flights, Blue Origin will offer orbital launch services ranging from $50 million to $100million per person.

The company’s Blue Moon lander was recently selected by NASA for the uncrewed demonstration Artemis V lunar mission set for 2029. Expect to see privately funded lunar missions, including tourist flights. But to do so, Blue Origin will have to purchase the services of a larger booster like NASA’s SLS or SpaceX’s Super Heavy.

Boeing’s (a builder) Starliner capsule is being developed as part of the NASA’s Commercial Crew Program, competing directly with SpaceX. The spacecraft are owned and operated by the vendor, and crew transportation is provided to the space agency as a service. The required capacity is up to seven astronauts, though the contract covers four per flight. Operational flights occur approximately once every six months for missions of the same length. The vessel remains docked to the ISS during its mission, and missions usually overlap by at least a few days.

Part of Boeing’s agreement with NASA allows Boeing to sell seats for tourists. The agency will likely remit about $90 million for each astronaut who flies aboard the Starliner capsule on International Space Station missions. Expect a tourist to pay a similar rate.

Boeing is also participating in Orbital Reef, another commercial space station for low Earth orbit. Station partners are Blue Origin, Sierra Space, Boeing, Redwire Space, Genesis Engineering Solutions, and Arizona State University. The station is expected to be operational by 2027. Like the Axiom Station, expect to see a tourism component to Orbital Reef’s operations.

Space Adventures Ltd. (a fixer) proposed in 2005 Deep Space Expedition Alpha (DSE-Alpha), a circumlunar mission to the Moon. It employs a modified Soyuz capsule docking with a booster rocket in Earth orbit which circles around the moon once, then returns to Earth. The price was originally set at $100 million per seat, but in January 2011 one of the two available seats was sold for $150 million. In the meantime, the company may have switched to the SLS & Boeing Starliner. The vessel is prominently featured on Space Adventure’s website for ISS trips.

SpaceX (a builder) revealed in September 2018 that Yusaku Maezawa intended to use Starship for his Dear Moon project, a lunar tourism mission and art project. Conceived and financed by the Japanese billionaire the mission will take six to eight artists with him on the journey, inspiring them to create new works. He reportedly paid $80 million, likely for his own seat, possibly as a deposit for the entire group.

A second mission with a similar flight profile is planned to follow, with first space tourist, Dennis Tito, and his wife Akiko Tito as two of the passengers. It may be significant that both of SpaceX’s declared lunar tourists are Space Adventures veterans. In February 2020, the two companies announced an agreement to provide private missions to the ISS using the Crew Dragon capsule.

SpaceX is contracted by NASA to demonstrate an initial human landing system for the Artemis III mission. Under that contract, the agency also required SpaceX to evolve its design to meet the agency’s requirements for sustainable exploration and to test the lander on Artemis IV. When not engaged with the space agency, I expect lunar landing tourist missions, possibly in conjunction with other paying commercial payloads and passengers.

Virgin Galactic (builder) will launch Galactic 01 later this month. The spacecraft will carry two pilots plus up to six passengers. Virgin Galactic will fly once per month after operations begin, with a long-range goal of weekly flights.

For the time being, folks like you and me won’t be able to afford the view offered by the ISS at 254 miles, or even a flight to fifty-five miles. But fifteen years from now, the cost of a suborbital experience will fall to the tens- — as opposed to the hundreds-of-thousands of dollars. Plus, as commercial space stations proliferate — I noted above at least two with sufficient funding to be in orbit by 2030 — cabin space will be devoted to accommodating space tourists. And with that kind of investment will come staff dedicated to servicing those visitors.

The day will come in the not-so-distant future that returning college students will brag about their summer stint at the Orbital Hilton. Working at Yellowstone lodge will always have that certain cache’, but really, how will you top working as a maid or a cook in orbit? Sign me up, Scottie!

Want a deeper dive? Check out these sources, listed in the order of discussion.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_tourism
https://www.axiomspace.com/
https://www.blueorigin.com/
https://www.boeing.com/space/starliner/launch/index.html
https://spaceadventures.com/
https://www.spacex.com/human-spaceflight/
https://www.virgingalactic.com/
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nasa-former-astronaut-chaperone-space-iss-private-mission/